At a glance
Government officials told Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis on 2 July 2026 that new electricity rules for data centres are unlikely to be needed yet, if growth stays as expected.
MBIE expects New Zealand's data centre demand to grow from 104MW in 2025 to more than 400MW by 2035, with 80MW of new demand in 2026/27.
Transpower's October connection list holds 2,130MW of data centre projects, up from 1,010MW in the May list MBIE reproduced in its briefing.
National and Labour both promise to make new data centres secure their own power supply, ahead of the 7 November election.
The four requirements officials listed for data centres are withheld from the released briefing.
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) advised the government in a briefing dated 2 July 2026 that New Zealand is unlikely to need new electricity rules for data centres yet, if growth stays as expected. Officials found that expected data centre growth "can likely be accommodated within existing market and regulatory frameworks", the briefing says.
New Zealand votes on 7 November. National and Labour both campaign on rules that would make new data centres secure their own power supply. BusinessDesk's election analysis on 2 November judged some form of that requirement likely "regardless of which party forms the next Government".
Transpower's list of data centre grid connections more than doubled between May and October 2026, from 1,010MW to 2,130MW, and connection applications in Auckland rose from 240MW to 960MW. The figures are the maximum supply each connection would enable, not demand. MBIE's briefing, written against the May list, described many of the projects as "competing developments targeting the same customers" and said not all are expected to proceed.
MBIE expects 80MW of new data centre demand in 2026/27
The briefing went to Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis. Data centres used about 0.6 per cent of New Zealand's electricity demand in 2025, on MBIE's figures, and it expects that share to reach about 1.6 to 2.2 per cent by 2030. The briefing puts demand at 104MW in 2025, rising to more than 400MW by 2035. It notes that the projections "may be too low" if New Zealand attracts significant additional investment.
The briefing expects "only 80 MW of new demand" in 2026/27, and Transpower's pipeline at the time held three data centres connecting in that year. Data centres made up 11 per cent of Transpower's connection enquiries, the briefing says. Transpower had 30 approaches from data centre developers by August, 11 of them at assessment or design, Boston Consulting Group reported.
MBIE does not expect the planned data centres to lift power prices. Its first recommendation on electricity asks Willis to note "that we do not expect electricity price impacts from currently planned data centres". Officials say data centres connecting after 2028 are unlikely to raise prices for others if the government's dry-year measures, including those announced in June 2026, are in place by then. A dry year is a run of low hydro lake levels, when New Zealand needs firm supply from other plants.
New data centres may lower grid charges for other customers
The briefing describes data centres as buyers that help fund new generation. Datagrid's Southland AI data centre holds a 140MW power purchase option with Mercury, on the briefing's account. Microsoft backed Contact Energy's Te Huka Unit 3 geothermal station, and Amazon Web Services backed Mercury's Turitea South wind farm.
A new data centre pays for its own connection assets at the edge of the grid and takes a share of core grid costs. "The presence of a 'new grid-connected industrial' could reduce core grid charges for all other customers, if the same network costs are now spread more widely," the briefing says. Officials add that a data centre which drives new core grid investment may instead raise transmission charges for others. They name the Electricity Authority, the market regulator, as the body to consider that.
The Electricity Authority may also ask big users to give early notice. Under the updated Government Policy Statement on Electricity, issued in June 2026, the Authority "will consider developing a requirement that large customers signal intention to connect, well in advance", the briefing says.
Transpower's October list names four Auckland connections in delivery
Transpower's load pipeline, dated 8 October 2026, lists 15 data centre projects in its forward pipeline. Four are in delivery, all for Vector, the Auckland lines company, at 33kV. Three are feeder projects, and a feeder is a power line run from a substation to a customer site.
The four are a 30MW connection at Takanini for TenPeaks and Spark, due 22 March 2027, and a 30MW connection at Silverdale for CDC, due 19 April 2027. Microsoft's 20MW Henderson feeder is due on 1 November 2027. Goodman's 30MW Penrose connection is due on 30 September 2028, and it was not on the May list MBIE reproduced in its briefing.
Auckland accounts for 1,480MW of the 2,130MW on the October list. The other 650MW sits in two larger projects, a 350MW investigation in Otago-Southland and a 300MW proposal at Stratford in Taranaki.
National and Labour promise own-power rules for new data centres
National's Electrify NZ 2.0 plan, released on 2 October, promises to "require AI data centres to bring their own new, firmed power". Firmed power is supply that can run on demand, not only when the wind blows or the sun shines. "New demand needs new supply too," National's energy spokesperson Simeon Brown said.
Labour, in opposition, would require data centres to "secure their own renewable energy supply, pay for their own connection costs, reduce electricity demand during peak stress periods, and use water efficiently", its policy page says. We covered Labour's plan when it launched in September. Labour spokesperson Reuben Davidson told interest.co.nz that moratoriums are not "the right approach".
The Green Party's 2026 AI policy asks for "a pause on consenting new hyperscale data centres until the regulatory framework is established", as we reported in October. BusinessDesk judged the pause the least likely data centre policy to survive coalition talks. NZ First, a coalition partner, told the Science Media Centre it would ensure "no domestic and industrial energy displacement from hyper-scale datacentres". Qiulae Wong's Opportunity Party would require AI data centres to underwrite their own new clean energy generation and pay the full cost of their grid connection. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon rejected a pause in July.
Tech New Zealand chief executive Graeme Muller told BusinessDesk that the promise of further rules is "not as scary as it sounds". He said the policies, other than the Greens', "are not really a concern" because existing regulation already shapes how New Zealand data centres operate.
An Auckland fast-track bid includes an 88MW data centre option
RP Financial is seeking fast-track approval to redevelop its 1.7-hectare block at 100 Halsey Street in Auckland's Wynyard Quarter. Its plans for five buildings include an 88MW hyperscale data centre as "option B", BusinessDesk reported, and the developer may instead build 6,900 square metres of offices.
Insight Economics, its economic consultant, describes the referral as a block with "a data centre and zone substation" and 80,000 square metres of proposed floorspace under the larger of two options. The firm reports the project was accepted for referral under the Fast-track Approvals Act and that it is now preparing the substantive assessment. Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick raised the project on 31 October. She said the government "should be asking questions, not referring it fast-track" when a project has no operator, grid analysis or water assessment, BusinessDesk reported.
Officials suggest Australia's expectations model as a light-touch option
The briefing lists four possible requirements for data centres. All four are withheld under the Official Information Act. An earlier paragraph notes that a government taking a "low-regrets approach" could require large data centres to back "new generation and firming capacity, offering demand flexibility, providing grid stability services, and contributing to any transmission investments driven by their demand".
Officials point to Australia as the model. The briefing says Australia's approach of setting national expectations for data centres shows how "relatively light-touch signalling" can steer investment. It warns that new policies should not cut projected returns "to an extent that overly diminishes New Zealand's attractiveness for investors".
The own-power rules National and Labour promise are closest to the first measure in that paragraph, support for new generation and firming capacity. BusinessDesk judged it plausible that deals already signed between developers and power companies could meet them. We expect the next government to set an own-supply expectation rather than a pause, because both major parties campaign on one and officials advised that a light-touch signal fits New Zealand's expected growth.
What to watch
Election day: New Zealanders vote on 7 November, and official results are due on 27 November, the Electoral Commission says.
Coalition talks: whether an own-supply rule for new data centres appears in the next government's coalition agreements.
Electricity Authority: whether it consults on an early notice requirement for large customers that plan to connect.
Halsey Street: the substantive fast-track application, and whether the developer chooses the 88MW data centre option.
Transpower: its next load pipeline update, and whether the Goodman Penrose connection holds its 30 September 2028 date.
Source: MBIE briefing BRIEFING-REQ-0033553, 2 July 2026; Transpower load pipeline, 8 October 2026; party policy documents; BusinessDesk, 2 November 2026; Insight Economics; interest.co.nz; Science Media Centre; Electoral Commission. The May figures are MBIE's reproduction of Transpower's May dataset. Transpower figures are the maximum supply each connection would enable, not demand.
